Forecasting Cash Withdrawals in the ATM Network Using a Combined Model based on the Holt-Winters Method and Markov Chains
نویسنده
چکیده
The article describes the method of forecasting time series of cash withdrawals in ATMs. The hybrid model is based on two methods: Holt-Winters additive method and Markov chainbased model. The combination occurs with the help of weight coefficients which are calculated on the basis of work of each model. Holt-Winters method forecasts time series with trend and seasonal variations. Markov chain enables to forecast patterns of basic time series, such as peaks or holes. The composition of these two approaches will allow banks and other financial organizations to predict cash withdrawals more accurately than the methods used separately.
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